Rafah Airstrikes Claim 44 Lives with Prospects of Full-Scale Israeli Ground Offensive

At least 44 people lost their lives in airstrikes on Rafah, the southernmost town in the Gaza Strip, as over a million civilians in the area brace for the potential of a complete Israeli ground offensive. Over the past four months, Israeli forces have progressively moved southward in their conflict with Hamas, making Rafah the last refuge for over half of Gaza's population. On February 9, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to plan a troop entry into Rafah for civilian evacuation, causing widespread panic in the already overcrowded makeshift tent camps. With two-thirds of Gaza under evacuation orders, widespread destruction, and ongoing fighting, the safe relocation of such a large population remains uncertain.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned of "disastrous consequences" if Israel proceeds with a ground offensive in Rafah, suggesting Israel's aim is to eventually force Palestinians from their land. An Egyptian official stated that fleeing Palestinians would not be permitted to cross the border into the Sinai peninsula, and any attempt to relocate them to Egyptian soil would jeopardize the peace deal between Egypt and Israel.

Despite the threats of a full-scale attack on Rafah, intended to pressure the Hamas leadership allegedly hiding in tunnels in the area, Netanyahu did not provide specific details or a timeline. However, he implied that the operation is inevitable, despite warnings of a potential "bloodbath."

Criticism outside Israel was swift, with Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), stating that a major Israeli offensive in Rafah would only lead to additional tragedy.

In the broader context, violence triggered by the Gaza war is spreading across the Middle East, with hostilities between Iran and Israel, as well as the US, becoming increasingly visible through actions of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian emphasized the need for a political solution to the Gaza conflict during a Lebanon visit, warning Israel against a full-scale war with Hezbollah, stating it would be Netanyahu's "last day." Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire across the disputed Israeli-Lebanese border since October 7.