Myanmar Military and Opposition Forge Agreement with Chinese Mediation

In statements issued in both Chinese and Kachin languages, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), also known as the Northern Alliance, conveyed that after engaging in talks facilitated by China in Kunming, both parties reached an agreement to withdraw their forces from the frontlines and ensure that ‘China’s interests in Myanmar are not harmed’.

The 3BHA, comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army, initiated a comprehensive offensive against junta positions in the region in late October. Recognised as Operation 1027, the campaign resulted in swift advancements, with MNDAA and TNLA forces capturing towns, military outposts, and crucial border crossings with China. This offensive posed a significant threat to the military presence in northern Shan State, potentially driving them out altogether.

Apart from committing to withdrawing their forces and ensuring the safety of Chinese interests, the potentially significant aspect of the agreement is the Myanmar military's formal acknowledgement of the MNDAA as the governing body of the Kokang special region. In January, the MNDAA assumed control of the Kokang capital, Laukkai, by displacing the military-aligned Border Guard Force, which had administered the region for the preceding 15 years in collaboration with a few Chinese crime families. This agreement solidifies the MNDAA's reversal of the Myanmar military's earlier offensive that expelled it from the region in 2009.

Additional provisions of the agreement included the resumption of overland trade between Myanmar and China, which had been disrupted for an extended period due to the conflicts stemming from Operation 1027. As outlined in the agreement, the MNDAA and the military have reached a consensus on a 70-30 division of the revenue generated from customs at the Chinshwehaw border gate—a location that witnessed changes during the initial stages of Operation 1027.

An agreement on the distribution of revenue from the Muse-Ruili border crossing, the primary conduit for China-Myanmar border trade, has not been reached by both parties. While Muse is currently under military authority, it is encircled by TNLA forces. The agreement stipulates that numerous clauses and specific implementation details are yet to be negotiated and settled, with the fifth round of discussions scheduled for April.

As observed by Jason Tower from the United States Institute of Peace on X (formerly Twitter), the agreement ‘is basically aimed at facilitating trade between China and Myanmar across both 3BHA and junta held territories.’ Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether the various agreements will endure and for what duration.

The rationale behind China's facilitation of the agreement is evident, with Beijing actively pursuing a restart of border trade since January. However, there are compelling reasons for both the 3BHA and the Myanmar military to cooperate, at least temporarily. Neither party can afford to estrange China or disregard its preferences, and both require time to solidify their current positions. The MNDAA, for instance, is engaged in the process of re-establishing its administrative structures in Kokang. As of February 29, the group declared its intention to commence tax collection from local businesses starting April 1.

The Myanmar military's official acknowledgement of the MNDAA's role in Kokang reflects a practical acceptance of the evolving situation on the battlefield. Faced with recent setbacks and continued challenges from the Arakan Army in Rakhine State, the army high command likely anticipates that, despite recent conflicts, it can reach a mutual understanding with the MNDAA and maintain its alignment within the legal framework.

The intriguing inquiry pertains to the motivations of the MNDAA and its connection to the larger movement aiming for the removal of the military regime that took control in February 2021. When declaring the offensive on October 27, the MNDAA and its partners said that they were ‘dedicated to eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship.’ The organisation has since gained broad acceptance as an integral component of the movement striving to establish an inclusive federal democracy in lieu of the existing system.