Iraqi Armed Groups Ease Attacks on US Forces Following Iran Commander's Request

Following a visit by the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, to Baghdad, attacks on U.S. troops by Iran-aligned groups in Iraq have temporarily ceased, according to multiple Iranian and Iraqi sources. The visit, which occurred less than 48 hours after the killing of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan, saw Qaani urging armed groups to refrain from attacking American forces to prevent a broader conflict. Qaani warned that targeting U.S. personnel could lead to a strong U.S. response, advising militias to lie low to avoid repercussions on senior commanders, infrastructure, or even direct retaliation against Iran.

While one faction initially resisted Qaani's request, most others complied, resulting in the suspension of attacks by the elite Iran-backed group Kataib Hezbollah since February 4. Before Qaani's intervention, there were over 20 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria in the preceding two weeks, driven by opposition to Israel's actions in Gaza.

Qaani's influence and success in persuading armed groups to halt attacks underscore Iran's sway over these factions, which strategically fluctuate between escalating tensions and seeking de-escalation to achieve their goal of pushing U.S. forces out of Iraq. The Iraqi government, aiming to prevent its territory from becoming a battleground for foreign powers, reportedly sought Iran's assistance in reining in armed groups after the attack in Jordan.

The apparent success of Qaani's visit has not only reduced hostilities but also prompted renewed talks between the United States and Iraq about ending the U.S. military presence in the country. While some Iran-aligned parties and armed groups prefer negotiations over attacks, the U.S. remains cautious, concerned that altering its military posture under fire could embolden Iran. Currently, the United States maintains around 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, part of an international coalition deployed to combat ISIS since 2014.